Carmelo Anthony has become an afterthought. It's the natural
extension of only playing 40 games for a 17-win team last season.
But long before that disastrous campaign, perception of him had begun to
slide. Each passing season has brought Anthony one step closer to
retirement and reinforced the opinion that he is a one-dimensional
scorer who can't get his team over the hump.
Yes, Anthony's Nuggets teams
struggled to advance in the playoffs and that his New York Knicks teams
have even struggled to make the playoffs. But difficult team situations
the past few seasons in New York have obscured the most efficient
basketball of Anthony's career
While Anthony's overall value has long been a subject of
passionate debate, his skills have always been clear: Anthony is a
scorer. Over the past five seasons, only LeBron James and Kevin Durant
have scored more than Anthony. The concern has been about how efficiently he scores and what else he provides to help his team.
When Anthony was traded to the
Knicks, his game faced two significant transitions. The first was that
he began taking more 3-pointers. With the Nuggets, about 12 percent of
Anthony's shot attempts were from behind the arc. In New York, that has doubled to 24 percent . The other change is the position he played. According to Basketball-Reference's position estimates
, Anthony played power forward only about 10 percent of the time in
Denver, whereas he has almost evenly split time between power forward
and small forward in New York.
The positional question really reflects a number of
different factors having to do with style of player. In Denver, Anthony
scored a lot around the basket, either posting up or coming off a drive.
But because he was so frequently on the floor with two traditional big
men, there was less space to operate. In New York, as a nominal power
forward, there has been more shooting on the floor around him and
consequently more space to operate.
Adding 3-pointers regularly to
his arsenal has raised the overall value of his shot distribution and
made him a more efficient scorer. In addition, making outside jump shots
a bigger part of his offensive repertoire has helped him dramatically
cut his turnover rate. Catch-and-shoot jump shots, in addition to often
offering a higher expected value than a difficult shot in the paint, are
also much less likely to result in a turnover. Only 14 players (42 total times) in
NBA history have finished a season using more than 30 percent of his
team's possessions while turning the ball over on less than 10 percent
of those possessions. Anthony has done it the past three seasons.
There are plenty of things for
the Knicks to work out before the season begins, but deciding how
exactly to use Anthony is one of the most important. Derek Fisher, in
his first year as Knicks coach last season, used him on the wings with
bigger lineups much more frequently and, although it wasn't the only
factor, his overall impact fell, extending the pattern we see in the
graphs. Even with his increased reliance on 3-pointers, Anthony has
consistently performed better the more he is used at power forward.
That may be an issue. This
summer, the Knicks continued to add size. Robin Lopez is in to replace
Tyson Chandler, but New York also added Kevin Seraphin, Derrick
Williams, Kyle O'Quinn and rookie Kristaps Porzingis. That crowded
frontcourt seems like an indicator that Fisher may continue using
Anthony as a small forward. Again, this is less about the specific
positional designation and more about shrinking offensive space around
the basket by crowding in two other big men. There also is talk that
Anthony prefers playing small forward, a common theme among players who
prefer to avoid size disadvantages even at the expense of matchup
advantages.
The arguments about Anthony and
2003 NBA Draft-mate LeBron James have long since been settled, Anthony
simply doesn't have the all around game or impact of that top tier of
player. What he does have is a gift for scoring efficiently in a
high-usage role — a skill which is extremely rare and dramatically
important. How far the Knicks go this season will mostly be determined
by the supporing cast, the players gathered around Anthony to do the
things he can not.
Still, he is a very good and
very talented player who has gotten better in the later stages of his
career. Anthony's biggest battle this season may not be
against age-related decline or stagnation, but instead against a
restrictive role that pushes him back towards what he used to be.
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